The Obama administration’s Iran policy has failed dramatically. Obama’s efforts to engage the regime in Iran failed, its efforts to pressure Iran on the nuclear issue are failing and has even led to a potential conflict with China. The EU follows suit. But a noteworthy change is that the IAEA, after that El-Baradei left the agency, has stepped up its pressure on Iran. But this will not change Iran’s policy to pursue nuclear weapons, because the framework in which the agency works makes it possible to manipulate.

Efforts to impose sanctions on Iran (especially in its “crippling” form) will most probably fail; China and Russia will hinder any such efforts. A military attack, especially if it only targets Iran’s nuclear plants, will also fail and could even lead to strengthening the regime. The IAEA’s new approach could help the U.S. and its allies to put more pressure on Iran, but it in the end it will not bring about any real change.

As for the self-described experts proposal to unconditionally engage Iran, one can only hope that the proposal is rooted in some kind of ultra-radical realism and that the individuals working for this approach are not stooges of the Islamic Republic. The proposal to ignore Iran and hope that the problem will wither away is quite amusing but not a practical.

The mistake that both governments and pundits in the West does in regard to Iran is that they change their policies and views based upon social and political changes in Iran, which they often misunderstand or misinterpret due to lack of understanding and information about the reasons behind these changes. A very recent example is that when the expected demonstrations on the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution in Iran didn’t turn out to be as large and as violent as expected, pundits and so called experts declared the opposition movement, that staged several anti regime demonstrations after the June 2009 presidential elections, dead.

Assuming that the regime has total control and that there will be no more demonstrations because the regime managed to prevent large demonstrations on the anniversary of the revolution is wrong. The opposition will grow and become more effective.

Even though the first demonstrations began as a reaction to the election fraud that took place during the Presidential election, the actual reason behind the demonstrations was a deep-rooted dissatisfaction with the rule of the Islamic regime.

Realistically, the only chance that Iran’s nuclear program is halted is if the regime is changed and the system of the Islamic Republic is changed into a secular and democratic system of government.

The fact that the demonstrations have not spread to regions in which Kurds, Balochs, Arabs, Turkoman and Azeris are in majority is the largest problem that the movement faces. These nationalities fear that their legitimate demands will not be met if individuals that are loyal to the Islamic Republic comes to power.

But as the demonstrations have continued and the real demands of the people in large cities like Tehran have become similar to those of the different nationalities, the possibility that these nationalities will join the demonstrations have increased dramatically.

For this to be possible, the struggle of the freedom-seeking people of Iran needs the support of governments that have a direct interest in removing the current regime. This support should not be short termed and it should not depend on the current regimes willingness or unwillingness to negotiate about its nuclear program.

Western governments should support the opposition morally, politically and in any other way that could help the democratic opposition to overthrow the Islamic Republic. Regime change will not only be in the interest of the people of Iran, but it will also bring about stability in large parts of the Middle East and it will also be in the direct interest of Western states.

In the video above, Congressman Rob Andrews expresses the fundamental problem with the United States policy towards Iran, the Fox News anchor makes a couple of important points, but it is strange that the U.S. still doesn’t understand that:

1. Sanctions will not cause a change in the Islamic Republics behavior.

2. The U.S. will not be able to persuade Russia and China to go along with the United States Iran policy.

3. The only way to stop Iran’s nuclear program is through regime change.

4. And regime change will only be possible if the democratic and secular opposition is supported and empowered so that they can change the regime from within.

Read – US investigates nuclear trigger as Tehran damns bomb ’scenario’

Read – US House passes Iran sanctions bill amid nuclear row

Read – Iran’s Mottaki defiant on UN nuclear sanctions threat

Read – Iran will not bow to sanctions

Watch – Iran’s Smoking Gun:

It is quite absurd to expect anything else from Iran, they will prolong this Cat and Mouse game as long as they can, and the U.S. only seems more and more desperate by refusing to accept the reality that Iran will not go along with he p5+1 proposal to send large portions of its uranium to Russia and France.

But as always, the possibility of new sanctions is always in the air, and new meetings are planed to talk about how to handle Iran. The whole Iran nuclear deal is becoming more and more ridiculous, everyone knows that Iran won’t go along with Western demands, but the U.S. and its allies insist on grasping for straws.

The poll shows that:

worries about Iran developing nuclear weapons most common among Americans: 82% say that this would be a major threat to the well-being of the U.S. Similarly, concerns are widespread in Western Europe — large majorities in Spain (81%), Germany (79%), Italy (78%) and France (74%) view Iran’s emergent nuclear capabilities as a major threat.

But the poll also shows that:

This view is less common among Eastern Europeans. Still, 69% of Czechs view Iran’s potential nuclear capabilities as a threat, as do more than six-in-ten in Poland (65%), Bulgaria (63%) and Lithuania (62%). Roughly half in Slovakia (52%) and Hungary (46%) express worry about Iran developing a nuclear capacity.

By contrast, there is less concern about this issue in Russia, which, as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, has veto power over any UN effort to impose sanctions on Iran. Just over four-in-ten Russians (41%) say Iran’s potential nuclear status poses a major threat to their country, while 48% deem it only a minor threat or not a threat at all. Ukrainians are even less worried — only 27% say Iran’s emergent nuclear status is a major threat to their country, while nearly half (48%) say it is a minor danger or no danger at all. Many in Ukraine say they don’t know (26%).

The difference between the West and East in this regard has a lot to do with Russia and China’s policy to downplay the threat of Iran developing nuclear weapons. Both Russia and China has economic and strategic interests in Iran, and they are afraid that any pressure on Iran could lead to those interests being threatened, but both of these countries are also using Iran as tool to get more incentives out of the U.S. and other Western countries.

The problem with Russia and China’s policy is potentially twofold, first these two countries believe that Iran would never become threat towards them, but the reality is that Iran wants to play a major role in world politics and it could be just a matter of time before Iran grows strong enough to challenge Russia and China. But more important than that is the growing feeling amongst Iranians that Russia and China do not act in the interests of Iran and that they are a major reason why the regime is able to hold on to power.

An example of this is that we have heard demonstrators in Iranian cities shout “death to Russia and China” when the regimes supporters shout “death to America and Israel”. And this shift of opinion should worry Russia and China more than any possible pressure from the U.S. or other Western countries.