Loghman H. Ahmedi » EU

What to do with Iran?

admin — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 18:35:10 +0000

It seems that no one in the West knows what to with Iran. The Obama administration and its allies are grasping for any solution, even if the solution would lead to other problems. Pundits and self-described experts on Iran are proposing everything from sanctions, military attacks and unconditional engagement to ignoring Iran.

The Obama administration’s Iran policy has failed dramatically. Obama’s efforts to engage the regime in Iran failed, its efforts to pressure Iran on the nuclear issue are failing and has even led to a potential conflict with China. The EU follows suit. But a noteworthy change is that the IAEA, after that El-Baradei left the agency, has stepped up its pressure on Iran. But this will not change Iran’s policy to pursue nuclear weapons, because the framework in which the agency works makes it possible to manipulate.

Efforts to impose sanctions on Iran (especially in its “crippling” form) will most probably fail; China and Russia will hinder any such efforts. A military attack, especially if it only targets Iran’s nuclear plants, will also fail and could even lead to strengthening the regime. The IAEA’s new approach could help the U.S. and its allies to put more pressure on Iran, but it in the end it will not bring about any real change.

As for the self-described experts proposal to unconditionally engage Iran, one can only hope that the proposal is rooted in some kind of ultra-radical realism and that the individuals working for this approach are not stooges of the Islamic Republic. The proposal to ignore Iran and hope that the problem will wither away is quite amusing but not a practical.

The mistake that both governments and pundits in the West does in regard to Iran is that they change their policies and views based upon social and political changes in Iran, which they often misunderstand or misinterpret due to lack of understanding and information about the reasons behind these changes. A very recent example is that when the expected demonstrations on the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution in Iran didn’t turn out to be as large and as violent as expected, pundits and so called experts declared the opposition movement, that staged several anti regime demonstrations after the June 2009 presidential elections, dead.

Assuming that the regime has total control and that there will be no more demonstrations because the regime managed to prevent large demonstrations on the anniversary of the revolution is wrong. The opposition will grow and become more effective.

Even though the first demonstrations began as a reaction to the election fraud that took place during the Presidential election, the actual reason behind the demonstrations was a deep-rooted dissatisfaction with the rule of the Islamic regime.

Realistically, the only chance that Iran’s nuclear program is halted is if the regime is changed and the system of the Islamic Republic is changed into a secular and democratic system of government.

The fact that the demonstrations have not spread to regions in which Kurds, Balochs, Arabs, Turkoman and Azeris are in majority is the largest problem that the movement faces. These nationalities fear that their legitimate demands will not be met if individuals that are loyal to the Islamic Republic comes to power.

But as the demonstrations have continued and the real demands of the people in large cities like Tehran have become similar to those of the different nationalities, the possibility that these nationalities will join the demonstrations have increased dramatically.

For this to be possible, the struggle of the freedom-seeking people of Iran needs the support of governments that have a direct interest in removing the current regime. This support should not be short termed and it should not depend on the current regimes willingness or unwillingness to negotiate about its nuclear program.

Western governments should support the opposition morally, politically and in any other way that could help the democratic opposition to overthrow the Islamic Republic. Regime change will not only be in the interest of the people of Iran, but it will also bring about stability in large parts of the Middle East and it will also be in the direct interest of Western states.

Iran’s nuclear trigger controversy

admin — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 05:57:23 +0000

Read – Iran’s secret nuclear trigger: translation of full document

Read – US investigates nuclear trigger as Tehran damns bomb ’scenario’

Read – US House passes Iran sanctions bill amid nuclear row

Read – Iran’s Mottaki defiant on UN nuclear sanctions threat

Read – Iran will not bow to sanctions

Watch – Iran’s Smoking Gun:

New Iran sanctions?

admin — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 01:58:47 +0000

Mohamed El-Baradei said that Iran has not yet given the IAEA any written response in which Iran rejected the 5+1 proposal, and Hillary Clinton said that the U.S. doesn’t consider Mottaki’s rejection as Iran’s “final word”.

It is quite absurd to expect anything else from Iran, they will prolong this Cat and Mouse game as long as they can, and the U.S. only seems more and more desperate by refusing to accept the reality that Iran will not go along with he p5+1 proposal to send large portions of its uranium to Russia and France.

But as always, the possibility of new sanctions is always in the air, and new meetings are planed to talk about how to handle Iran. The whole Iran nuclear deal is becoming more and more ridiculous, everyone knows that Iran won’t go along with Western demands, but the U.S. and its allies insist on grasping for straws.

Iran talks

admin — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:55:08 +0000

Tehran delays decision on nuclear deal

Iranian newspaper attacks EU Green parties after a meeting with the PDKI

admin — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 14:09:02 +0000

After that our party and four other opposition parties had a meeting with Isabelle Durant, one of the European parliaments 14 vice presidents, the “Iran newspaper” wrote an article accusing the European green parties of supporting “anti revolutionary groups”.

In the article the editors of the newspaper claim that the “anti revolutionary groups” (opposition parties) asked the Greens for help and that the Greens in the EU parliament have promised to help the opposition groups to destabilize Iran. Which off course is a total fabrication.

Different newspapers linked to the different fractions of the Islamic Republic from time to time writes these kinds of articles and diplomats of the Islamic Republic attempts to pressure different political parties and organizations in the West whenever our party or any of the other opposition parties have a meeting with them.

Iran’s secret nuclear plant in Qom

admin — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 13:35:01 +0000

Not surprisingly, Iran has built a secret nuclear site in the holy city of Qom:

Video of the statements by the Presidents Obama, Sarkozy and Prime Minister Brown at the G 20 summit in Pittsburgh:

Time Magazine questioning Ahmedinejad about the nuclear site:

Russia and China urges Iran to cooperate with the IAEA

Official U.S. Government Statements Regarding the Qom Enrichment Plant Disclosure

Q&A on the Qom Enrichment Plant Disclosure

CRF interview: The significance of Iran’s secret nuclear site

Stopping Iran

admin — Tue, 19 May 2009 21:19:30 +0000

Read

Successful denuclearization of hostile states is most likely to occur as a result of regime change, coercive diplomacy or military action, not U.S. pledges of mutual respect.

The EU’s economic interests and Iran’s nuclear quest

admin — Sun, 10 May 2009 16:35:37 +0000

The issue of Iran’s quest to acquire nuclear weapons is something that is occupying Western powers. Amongst these Western powers the European Union have officially had a significant role in attempting to persuade the Islamic Republic of Iran to halt its nuclear program, but in reality the EU (or at least the major powers of the EU) have major economic interests in Iran, thus making them less inclined to pressure Iran.

According to statistics from 2007, the EU is Iran’s biggest export, import and trade partner. Click here to see statistics and click here for the full report.

These numbers could be one of the explanations to the EU’s hesitation to put more pressure on Iran. The natural question that arises is, “Should the EU put its economic interests before regional and world security?”

Short-term economic interests will not be beneficial for the EU; the current level of trade with Iran would be increase dramatically if a regime change would occur, thus a more fruitful strategy would be to support the Iranian opposition to bring about change in order to protect the EU’s long term economic interests with Iran. Unfortunately that will not happen, Tehran Times reports that:

“With $5.55 billion trade, Germany is Iran’s major European trade partner and its third worldwide. Switzerland, Italy, England, and France ranked the fifth, the eighth, the ninth, and the tenth trade partners of Iran with $3.53 billion, $2.25 billion, $2.08 billion, and $2.01 billion worth of transactions respectively.”