Public opinion poll about Iran’s nuclear program
It is always interesting to read public opinion polls; Pew Research Centre has released a 14-nation survey about people’s perception on Iran’s nuclear program. The results are quite expected, but at the same time worrisome, especially when it comes to the opinions amongst people in Eastern countries like Russia, Ukraine and Hungary.
The poll shows that:
worries about Iran developing nuclear weapons most common among Americans: 82% say that this would be a major threat to the well-being of the U.S. Similarly, concerns are widespread in Western Europe — large majorities in Spain (81%), Germany (79%), Italy (78%) and France (74%) view Iran’s emergent nuclear capabilities as a major threat.
But the poll also shows that:
This view is less common among Eastern Europeans. Still, 69% of Czechs view Iran’s potential nuclear capabilities as a threat, as do more than six-in-ten in Poland (65%), Bulgaria (63%) and Lithuania (62%). Roughly half in Slovakia (52%) and Hungary (46%) express worry about Iran developing a nuclear capacity.
By contrast, there is less concern about this issue in Russia, which, as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, has veto power over any UN effort to impose sanctions on Iran. Just over four-in-ten Russians (41%) say Iran’s potential nuclear status poses a major threat to their country, while 48% deem it only a minor threat or not a threat at all. Ukrainians are even less worried — only 27% say Iran’s emergent nuclear status is a major threat to their country, while nearly half (48%) say it is a minor danger or no danger at all. Many in Ukraine say they don’t know (26%).
The difference between the West and East in this regard has a lot to do with Russia and China’s policy to downplay the threat of Iran developing nuclear weapons. Both Russia and China has economic and strategic interests in Iran, and they are afraid that any pressure on Iran could lead to those interests being threatened, but both of these countries are also using Iran as tool to get more incentives out of the U.S. and other Western countries.
The problem with Russia and China’s policy is potentially twofold, first these two countries believe that Iran would never become threat towards them, but the reality is that Iran wants to play a major role in world politics and it could be just a matter of time before Iran grows strong enough to challenge Russia and China. But more important than that is the growing feeling amongst Iranians that Russia and China do not act in the interests of Iran and that they are a major reason why the regime is able to hold on to power.
An example of this is that we have heard demonstrators in Iranian cities shout “death to Russia and China” when the regimes supporters shout “death to America and Israel”. And this shift of opinion should worry Russia and China more than any possible pressure from the U.S. or other Western countries.
